Nervousness killing Villa's hopes of Premier League return

The joys of being an Aston Villa fan! Sometimes it’s hard to know which is worse, having no hope whatsoever or promising much and ultimately delivering so little.

There’s no question that the club’s inability to win football matches has become an issue of mentality. It’s a problem that they tried to remedy this summer with a complete overhaul of both the management and playing staff. The fact that the nervousness that has so plagued their performances for years now remains regardless is certainly concerning.

On Wednesday night Villa yet again surrendered a lead late on to ensure that their record under Roberto Di Matteo is one win from 8. While it’s difficult to know just how much of the blame should be placed at the manager’s door, it’s one far from acceptable of a club that invested so heavily to back him.

The transfer policy seemed a wise one. A team lacking leaders and Championship experience was tipped to struggle after such a woeful campaign ensured they were relegated for the first time in the Premier League era. Among the new arrivals were five players that had previously been promoted from England’s second tier, as well as three club captains in the form of Elphick, Jedinak and McCormack to bolster the spine of the side.

While the majority of Villa’s acquisitions have already proven that they have plenty to offer, the club still find themselves in 17th after 7 games, and there’s no secret as to why.

John Egan’s 88th minute equaliser for Brentford at Villa Park in midweek was the fifth that Villa have conceded in the final ten minutes of league matches. They’ve conceded just 3 times up until the 80-minute mark in comparison. The consequence has seen the Midlands outfit drop 9 points from winning positions already. 

If maintained at the current rate over the course of a season - close to 1.3 points dropped per game - that would cost the club 59 points and a shot at the title, let alone a push for the play-offs, which is already seeming like the club’s realistic chance of an immediate return. Indeed, it’s ironic that Villa are currently 9 points off the lead in the Championship.

The inability to see out matches has already been blamed, by some, on Di Matteo, whose tactics have certainly seemed naive at times. Villa ended a game they had come from behind to lead against Nottingham Forest with four strikers on the pitch before conceding late on once more, and started with the same front four against Brentford. However, while the Italian’s line-ups and substitutions have looked desperate on occasion, in truth this club has become a creature of habit in that it cannot see games over the line.

It’s a matter of application and, more pertinently, concentration rather than effort, which could also be linked to a lack of fitness - something that this club has been accused of back into the Martin O’Neill era. If you include the horrendous cup exit to Luton, Villa have led in 6 of 8 matches this season and gone on to win just once. If they aren’t leading by more than a single goal with around half an hour to go the nerves set in and the effect on performances is so abundantly clear.

While the manner of their one victory this season came as a real pick-me-up to a fan base that has had to suffer for so long, in reality Villa desperately need a win by one-goal, squandering the chance to do so twice in a week. It’s something the manager is well aware of, stating after the Brentford draw “Obviously we will analyse but the only way to overcome it is to go on and win a game 1-0, 2-1 or whatever it is – and see a lead out.” He continued “I don’t mind if it’s ugly or attractive…any way.”

It’s true that this side could desperately do with a victory they didn’t really deserve, and Wednesday night was arguably that opportunity having let the Bees back into the game after a strong start.

There are certainly some reasons for optimism, with Jonathan Kodjia’s start to life in claret and blue the latest of them. The club was questioned for spending £15m on the former Bristol City striker but what he has shown so far - opening his Villa account superbly in midweek - both leading the line and from wide has been very encouraging. His WhoScored.com rating of 7.90 after two matches is the leading score for the side, and the identity of the chasing pack is also telling.

Jordan Ayew (7.47), Rudy Gestede (7.46), Ross McCormack (7.20) and Jack Grealish (7.27) complete the top five. Fitting all of them in is proving too tempting to resist for Di Matteo, and that’s without factoring another summer arrival in Albert Adomah, who has been unavailable for selection so far. It seems bizarre to suggest, particularly given the club’s modest 8-goal tally so far, but there is a sense that Villa have a little too much firepower and keeping them all content could come at a cost.

Ayew is one in particular who, despite frustrating as much as he delights, is difficult to leave out, purely because he can conjure something out of nothing. He is a player summed up by two statistics this season in that regard, with only two players having completed more dribbles (26) but none mustering more shots without finding the net (24). It’s that level of profligacy that leaves the side in the predicament in which they find themselves so crippled in the closing stages. 

Ayew is lately proving something of a divisive figure among Villa’s fans as a result. Many don’t take kindly to a constant expression of a toddler told that he can’t have any sweets. When he does come up with a moment of magic his teammates have to force him to join in the celebrations. That can give the feeling that he is far from happy in his current surroundings but in truth it matters little how wildly you celebrate if you can still turn in the sort of performance that should have earned Villa all three points against Forest.

He, along with Kodjia, Gestede and McCormack would arguably walk into most Championship sides as a first choice forward. The fact is, despite Di Matteo’s attempts to prove otherwise, that can’t be the case in the same XI.

Nevertheless, while results have been disappointing this season is already very different to the last. The quality within this squad is unquestionably good enough to compete at the very top of this level. Had they seen out wins in their last two games Di Matteo’s men would certainly be in the mix. A win against Ipswich this weekend is already looking like a must before this group of players is offered the chance to prove that it is right up there with the side most are still expecting to romp to the title, when they host a Newcastle side already opening up a significant gap.

There have been some suggestions that Di Matteo’s job could come under threat but at this early stage that would be incredibly harsh to say the least. After all, Villa have come so very close to securing the sort of points haul the fans would have expected before ultimately dropping so very far. While the table may not indicate as much there is a sense that the Villans aren’t far off the level of those at the summit but the longer this nervousness persists the further they will fall and with it so could Di Matteo’s head.

Still, 39 games to go…

Are Villa already too far behind to have a shot at automatic promotion? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below