League Focus: Inescapable Inconsistency Set to Decide Championship Promotion Race
If those in power at the Championship's promotion-chasing clubs needed any more reason to motivate their players as the season approaches its final quarter, a £5.1bn television deal will have whetted their appetites for the big time sufficiently. And yet, it seems the players chasing the top spots are ready to throw away their chances. Just 8 points now separate the top 8 teams, with erratic form all too pervasive. This weekend saw the top seven take only 7 points between them as 4 were defeated in another typically inconsistent and unpredictable set of results.
Eddie Howe's early season front runners, Bournemouth, have taken fewer points from their last 5 matches (3) than any other team in the league other than rock-bottom, doomed Blackpool (2), after having taken 57 points from their first 29 matches and looking odds-on for one of the automatic promotion spots. The goals that previously flowed so freely have started to dry up; top scorer Callum Wilson is without a goal in 4 matches, and when he isn't scoring he provides little else. His WhoScored rating over those matches is a meagre 6.27, compared to a seasonal average of 7.15. Matt Richie, meanwhile, who is top of the Championship for assists this season (12), has created only 1 goal in his last 11 matches. The team's standout performers are, somewhat understandably, struggling to maintain form over the course of the marathon 46-match season. They have fallen to fifth, while the likes of Norwich and Watford, two of the league's more in-form sides, move the other way.
The Canaries have gone from strength to strength since appointing Alex Neil as manager in January. They have won 8, drawn 1 and lost only 1 of the 10 matches he has taken charge of, and now having won their last 6 games in a row are just 3 points off top spot. An Old Farm derby victory over Ipswich on Sunday to usurp them in the table could well be considered a high point of the season so far, though they look good value to reach even greater heights.
Neil hasn't made widespread changes to the personnel, instead turning things around with the players available to him. Bradley Johnson has been key, contributing 10 goals from central midfield, while they also have 3 strikers scoring fairly consistently, with Cameron Jerome (16), Lewis Grabban (12) and Gary Hooper (9) sharing the burden to the extent that they always seem to have an in-form striker available. They are clearly getting into better goalscoring positions, scoring more goals under Neil than before (2.2 per game compared to 1.8) from fewer shots (14.5 per game down from 17.2). At the other end, too, they are shipping fewer goals; they have let in only 8 goals in 10 games under Neil, compared to 29 in 24 before he was brought in. A Championship table based only on the time for which the Scot has been at the helm has Norwich top of the league. If Neil continues to work his magic, they could have another shot at the Premier League next season.
East Anglian adversary Mick McCarthy has been given deserved acclaim for this season building a team capable of challenging at the top on a shoestring. The riches of the new Premier League TV deal must have the Tractor Boys dreaming of Ferraris.
Ipswich are clinging onto a playoff spot having lost 5 of their last 10 games, but the fact that their WhoScored rating (7.15) is the third best in the league suggests they have the quality to challenge higher up the table. They are direct in their play, playing the second highest proportion of their passes long (24.5%) and boasting the worst pass success rate (65.7%) in the Championship, but they are effective at what they do. The highest scorers of headed goals (14), with Daryl Murphy leading the way in the individual stakes (7), they have a decent chance of making the top 6.
Brentford have flirted with the idea of a challenge for promotion but seem to have disrupted their progress by announcing that their manager Mark Warburton will be leaving at the end of the season. 7th but with 4 losses in their last 7, the wisdom of taking that decision - and making it public - is certainly questionable.
25-year-old Nigerian forward Odion Ighalo has fired Watford into serious contention for one of the top spots, hitting an incredible 13 goals from 29 shots in just 9 appearances this calendar year; only 6 Championship teams have scored more times since the turn of the year than he has alone. They score plenty of goals - more than any other team in fact (69), but their leaky defence (42 goals conceded) could be their downfall. They struggle to grind out draws at difficult times and are often caught out when pushing up in search of a winner; they have drawn only 5 games all season and last shared the spoils way back in October. They are, however, certainly one of the Championship's more exciting sides.
While Wolves stutter and yet may be in with a chance of promotion despite enduring the joint-worst losing streak the league has seen all season (5 matches), Derby and Middlesbrough, who both not so long ago looked shoo-ins for promotion are wobbling at the top. They both have fantastic managers who have blended youth and experience to build strong squads with vastly differing strengths.
Aitor Karanka has a Boro team with the best defence in the league (24 goals against) and Steve McClaren's Derby has shown particular aptitude in the transfer market, with Tom Ince and Darren Bent both looking great signings. When Karanka's defence fails, however, he doesn't always have the attacking quality to bail them out, as was the case in defeat to Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, while injuries to McClaren's key players look like they could derail their plans. Chris Martin and Darren Bent both have knocks and the Rams may thus struggle for goals in the coming weeks.
Every team has had a rough patch at some point or other this season and there is little knowing how many more twists and turns there are left in store. It would even be premature to call this only an eight horse race; Dougie Freedman is inspiring a late surge for the top at ninth-placed Nottingham Forest. The Championship promotion race is as unpredictable as they come, and just about the only thing we can be sure of is the fact that inconsistency will be a prominent feature. Anyone who can string even a few wins together stands a great chance of success.
Which three teams do you think will gain promotion to the riches of the Premier League? Let us know in the comments below
