League Focus: Three Pivotal Matches in Ligue 1’s Battle at the Bottom

Montpellier v Monaco

This should read as a meeting of some promise, with the 2012 champions taking on stylish, nouveau riche visitors. In fact, we have two teams with wildly divergent aims. Montpellier have lost the fewest matches in the bottom nine (6) but are hovering above the drop zone, with only 2 wins recorded. Before Sunday’s win at fourth-tier amateurs Rodez, they had gone for 11 matches without a victory. 

Midfielder Rémy Cabella, being linked with a move away from the Mosson, should be a central figure. The 23-year-old tops Montpellier’s WhoScored individual ratings table (7.29), and with good reason. He’s scored 6, made 3 assists and produces an impressive average of 2.3 key passes per game. Cabella will be key to unlocking a visiting defence that has shipped just 13 to date, the joint second-best in the division alongside leaders Paris Saint-Germain.

Cabella needs some help ahead of him, though. Loan arrival M’Baye Niang scored on debut against Rodez, but, it’s easy to forget he’s only 19, and has started just once for AC Milan this term. The more experienced Victor Hugo Montaño has scored a modest 4 in 18 games (13 starts) since returning from Rennes, and adds relatively little when not scoring, with modest passing and defensive contribution. With key signing Djamel Bakar out for the season, the fan favourite must make his presence felt.

Getting the blend right in the final third will surely be the central theme - under 2.5 goals have been scored in each of Montpellier's last 10 games in Ligue 1 – and the same can be said of Monaco, as they seek to recover from a shock home loss to Valenciennes before the break. The news that new signing Lacina Traoré is to be loaned out is perhaps a little surprising, especially given the news that teenager Anthony Martial will be out for the rest of the month. 

Claudio Ranieri’s reasoning for this was that he didn’t want to perturb the rhythm of either Martial or Emmanuel Rivière – the latter, widely assumed to be surplus to requirements before the season’s start, scored 26% of Monaco’s goals before Christmas. Yet the clues from Sunday’s difficult Coupe de France win at third-tier Vannes are that Ranieri may well move away from the diamond midfield and 4-4-2 that worked so well in November and December, though Monaco began the match in that formation.

Radamel Falcao (scorer of 29% of Monaco’s league goals) looked fit and firing again, scoring one and creating another. When he and his fellow Colombian James Rodríguez were given a breather just after the hour, they were replaced by wingers Lucas Ocampos and Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco, who hadn’t played together since November. Ferreira-Carrasco struck the late winner and if the pair renew their form, a move back to 4-2-3-1 is inevitable, with Rivière likely to make way.

Rennes v Nice

It is perhaps stretching it to say that this is a relegation battle, but it is at the very least a meeting between two chronic underachievers. The arrival of Philippe Montanier from Champions League qualifiers Real Sociedad had given cause for cautious optimism at the Stade de la Route de Lorient, while Nice finished fourth last season and are unfettered by the dual demands of domestic and European competition, having gone out of the Europa League in the play-off round. 

It’s not gone to plan. The Bretons’ total of 21 points is their lowest at the winter break in ten years. If we look at the bigger picture, it’s even worse. Rennes took just 35 points in the calendar year of 2013. In that context they could be regarded as genuine relegation contenders, despite lying 7 points ahead of the drop zone at present.

Montanier’s Real Sociedad had a slow start last season, and were fourth-bottom of La Liga after 10 matches with just 10 points, so improvement is possible. He will hope a few key attacking elements have gained energy from the break - particularly Romain Alessandrini, who has scored 4 goals and made an assist in 8 starts so far, but will have to pick up the pace. Meanwhile Nélson Oliveira (7 goals in 14 starts) was flagging badly before Christmas, and needs to be fresh again. 

Nice’s problem is clear. Despite having the third-highest average percentage of possession in Ligue 1 matches to date (54.7%, behind only PSG and Monaco), Claude Puel’s side have scored just 18 times in 19 matches. Dario Cvitanich has looked increasingly unhappy and having not scored since early November, it’s understandable. Though the rehabilitation of last season’s top scorer Cvitanich is vital from a sporting and financial standpoint (they’ll surely want to cash in on him at some point), a more immediate solution might be Alexy Bosetti.

It might seem unlikely, given Bosetti is only ranked 21st in the WhoScored rating list of Nice’s squad and has started just 3 Ligue 1 games this season, but the 20-year-old is finding form. Often played in midfield, the combative Bosetti looks a different player at centre-forward, and scored in the last match before Christmas against Evian. He can create, too, having set up Christian Brüls’ goal in the Coupe de France win at Nantes this weekend with a superb pass. Arguably, though, goalscoring is not necessarily the priority on this visit to Brittany. Just two points ahead of Rennes at present, avoiding defeat is paramount.

Valenciennes v Bastia

Previously in danger of being cut adrift at the bottom, Ariel Jacobs’ Valenciennes were the authors of a little Christmas miracle with their totally unexpected win at Monaco last time out. Now, they are within 3 points of fourth-bottom Montpellier. The loan signings of the experienced Carl Medjani (Ajaccio’s third-highest rated player before leaving for Monaco last winter) and Abdul Majeed Waris (who scored in Ghana’s World Cup play-off win over Egypt) are also timely boosts.

It simply had to get better after the run of 9 defeats in 11 games that cost Daniel Sanchez his job. Improvement has been gradual, though the northerners have only failed to score in 1 of 12 matches in all competitions since Jacobs’ October arrival. Tongo Doumbia’s recent improvement could be important, after he made 2 key passes and an assist against Monaco, having scored against Bordeaux in the previous match.

Djibril Cissé will make his Bastia debut here, having been unable to face Evian in the Coupe de France at the weekend after the Russian authorities failed to get his international transfer certificate across to their French counterparts in time. The 32-year-old currently tallies 94 Ligue 1 goals and is aiming for the ton. 

It can’t be emphasised just how much Bastia need him in this one. Currently 10 points clear of relegation, Frédéric Hantz’s team is certainly one that could be sucked in despite the plentiful talent in their squad, due to their dire away form. They are winless in 10 away from Furiani and have scored just 8 goals. Cissé will certainly get service from Wahbi Khazri (2 assists to date and 1.5 key passes per game) but Milos Krasic (no assists and 0.5 key passes) must do more to provide for his illustrious new teammate.

How do you see Ligue 1 panning out? Let us know in the comments below