AC Milan line up against AS Roma in the Stadio Olympico tonight looking for the victory that would crown them Serie A champions for 2010/11. With just three games to go, it would take a monumental collapse for Massimiliano Allegri’s side to be denied the league now; Milan have an eight point lead and a substantial goal difference advantage over second-place Inter, with even a single point likely to be enough for the Rossoneri to clinch a first league title in seven years.
Form
After some strong home form at the start of the season, Roma have tailed off in recent months; they may have only lost three times in front of their own fans, but all three defeats have came in the last six home games. Nevertheless, Vincenzo Montella’s side are just one point off the Champions League Qualifying Places and can ill-afford to drop any more if they are to maintain their challenge for that crucial fourth-place spot.
Milan come into the game buoyed by some recent fine form; they’re on the back of a five-game winning streak, with clean sheets in six of the last seven league games. Despite the likes of Ibrahimovic, Pato and Robinho up front, it’s the back-four who have, arguably, been the rock this title challenge has been built on, with 18 clean sheets in 35 games.
Roma average 1.7 goals per home game while Milan average 1.4 goals for every away game, with the visitors having failed to scored in their last two games against the Giallorossi. There’s no bigger incentive for Milan, however, than knowing that a win will not only deliver Serie A, but also end Inter’s reign as champions for five seasons running.
Team News
A knee injury picked up in last month’s home defeat to Juventus has deprived Roma of Phillipe Mexes, with the centre-half out for the season. Straight red cards for both Daniel de Rossi and Simone Perrotta in the 3-2 win at Brescia last weekend means Montella’s side are without the services of either midfielder; Matteo Brighi and Simplicio look the most likely replacements.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic comes back for Milan after serving a three-match ban for swearing at a linesman in April’s win over Fiorentina. Fellow-forward Alexandre Pato seems set to recover from a thigh injury, Gennaro Gattuso has also returned to training, while Mark Van Bommel will return from suspension to add plenty steel and industry to central midfield.
Roma Key Men
The experience and know-how of Juan in central defence will be vital to the home side’s chances tonight. The Brazilian’s reading of the game is shown in his 4.1 Interceptions per game, meaning he makes less Tackles (1.3) than the typical centre-back. Partnered by Nicolas Burdisso in the absence of Mexes, his game average of 6.4 Clearances will no doubt increase as Milan go looking to clinch the title.
De Rossi’s exclusion merely emphasises the importance of David Pizarro to Roma’s midfield. Sitting in front of the back-four, his creativity and distribution is key to the Giallorossi; he averages 2.89 Key Passes and has a Pass Accuracy of 89% per game.
As always, much will rest on the shoulders of Francesco Totti. Good news for Roma is their captain been in outstanding form over the last two months, scoring 10 goals in the last 8 league games and picking up 4 Man of the Match along the way. If he can replicate that sort of performance this evening, Milan will have a hard task on their hands.
Milan Key Men
Thiago Silva has been immense for Milan this season. His calm, collected approach at the back has been fundamental to their success, with 7.8 Clearances and 2.4 Interceptions per game. Silva may only average 2.2 Tackles but his reading of the game has been a real stand-out, hence the reason he has just 1 Yellow Card all season. With 91% Pass Accuracy, his assured distribution from defence is key for Allegri’s side. The top-ranked Milan player in our ratings system, averaging 7.47 per game.
Since signing in January, Mark Van Bommel has become an integral part of Milan’s 4-1-2-1-2 system. Slotting in as the defensive midfield anchor in front of the back-four, breaking up opposition moves and keeping distribution short and simple, the Dutchman’s game allows others around him to play. With 3.5 Tackles and 2.1 Interceptions per game, combined with a 88% Pass Accuracy, Van Bommel is the top-rated midfielder at Milan, with an average rating of 7.11 per game.
With 14 goals and 11 assist, Zlatan Ibrahimovic has been both Milan’s chief scorer and creator this season. The last couple of months, however, have been blighted by suspensions and the team have shown they are perhaps less reliant on Ibra than previously thought, winning their last three games in the big Swede’s absence. His form has tailed off, too, with just 1 goal in his last 8 league games, but an average of 3.3 Shots and 2.29 Key Passes per game, shows why he can never be written off.
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