Can Mata and Gervinho Replace Fabregas and Nasri?

It’s looking increasingly likely that Juan Mata will be appearing in the Premier League next season. With Tottenham joining Arsenal in their pursuit of the highly rated Valencia youngster, it seems the race for Mata’s signature is now a straightforward battle between the two North London rivals.

Last week, Valencia’s confirmation of a loan deal for Real Madrid’s Sergio Canales prompted speculation that a move away from Spain for Mata is very much imminent. While Harry Redknapp is a confirmed admirer, the possible sale of Cesc Fabregas to Barcelona will provide Arsene Wenger with a substantial hole in his Arsenal first XI that will urgently need addressing.

With the budget to splash the cash, Wenger will surely be in the driving seat to land Mata and capture his second big money signing of the summer, with Gervinho already arriving from French champions Lille. Long-term, it seems almost a certainty that the futures of both Fabregas and Nasri lie away from the Emirates and with that in mind, we analyse the stats to see just how capable Mata and Gervinho are of filling the boots of the unsettled Arsenal pair.

Mata v Fabregas

 Mata can play in more positions across the front than Cesc- he started 36 La Liga and Champions League matches last season and 22 came on the left wing, with 14 through the middle. Interestingly, he was a more efficient creator from out wide, picking up 3 goals and 9 assists from his 22 games on the wing.

In a central position, his eye for goal excelled- Mata grabbed 6 goals and 4 assists in 14 games- comparing these two sets of stats, it’s easy to see that Mata is a more dangerous player when fielded in a central position. With Aaron Ramsey also coming into the picture following his recovery from a broken leg, however, Mata’s ability to play left could allow Wenger to field the young Welshman through the centre and start him in the same XI as Mata. This was an option rarely afforded by Fabregas‘ inclusion, with Ramsey only ever used as back-up to the Arsenal skipper.

Passing

Both Mata and Fabregas made 73 key passes last season, with Mata picking up 12 assists to Cesc’s 11. This means Mata picked up 1 assist for every 6.08 key passes he made last season, compared to Fabregas’ 1 assist per 6.63. Fabregas’ passing was a more constant threat, though- he averaged 2.9 key passes to Mata’s 2.2. 

The Arsenal man had 63.9 passes to Mata’s 44 per game but this was more down to team tactics and their roles within their respective teams- it does show, however, a more efficient side to Mata’s distribution, given he picked up more assists. The Valencia man also excels when it comes to pass accuracy, with 86% to 81%. This suggests that, playing in the role behind Robin Van Persie, his creativity looks just as promising as the Arsenal skipper’s.

Dribbling and Shooting

Despite playing so many games out wide, Mata’s game is clearly not based on his ability to beat a man- he made just 0.6 successful dribbles per game, with his superb distribution meaning it’s unnecessary for him to go on runs with the ball. Fabregas made 1 successful dribble per game and also edged Mata for goal attempts, with 2 shots per game to 1.6.

Once again, both players’ total shots were almost identical- Mata had 53 over the course of last season and Fabregas had 50. With a total of 8 goals, however, Mata had the keener eye for goal of the pair in 2010/11- Fabregas scored just 3 goals for Arsenal. This means Mata scored 1 goal with every 6.62 shots, while Fabregas scored 1 goal with every 16.66 shots.

Gervinho v Nasri

Gervinho offers a similar sort of adaptability as Nasri- both played wide right, wide left and through the middle last term. With the less versatile Theo Walcott more settled on the right, a role wide left looks most likely for Gervinho. Andrei Arshavin may come into the mix- the Russian missed just one game last term but his influence on the Arsenal side is waning with a series of uninspired performances. If anything, his role could well be of a back-up nature next term.

A key factor in the duo’s stats worth considering is the different formations of their respective teams- while Arsenal played 4-2-3-1 with Nasri in an attacking midfield role and Robin Van Persie the main goal threat, Gervinho’s Lille favoured a 4-3-3, meaning he played further forward and his goal threat was more crucial to his side.

Passing

With Van Persie ahead of him, Nasri always had someone to slide through on goal with a killer pass and as a result, made 1.9 key passes per game compared to Gervinho’s 1.3. Nasri made a total of 57 key passes per game in season 2010/11 to Gervinho’s 46, but rather bizarrely, the Arsenal man picked up just 1 assist over the whole season- a ratio, therefore, of 1 assist for every 57 key passes made. Gervinho, on the other hand, picked up 10 assists, which equates to 1 assist for every 4.6 key passes he made.

Nasri’s 48.9 passes per game indicate his tendency to drop deep and get more involved in his side’s build-up play- Gervinho’s lowly 22 suggests a more direct style of play and is also indicative of his role at Lille- he was the only player to hit double figures for both goals and assists for the French champions. Nasri’s pass accuracy is also superior - 88% to 80%- but given his lack of end product, highlights more caution in possession than Gervinho.

Dribbling and Shooting

Both players were very similar for successful dribbles per game- Gervinho just edges Nasri 2.1 to 2.0, an indication that his ability to beat a man is certainly not the lesser of the Arsenal man. Given Gervinho’s more forward role, he averaged 2.2 shots per game for Lille, just less than their centre forward Moussa Sow with 2.4. Nasri, on the other hand, had 1.7 shots at goal, fourth best at Arsenal and less than the likes of Theo Walcott (2.0).

Over his 35 appearances, therefore, Gervinho had 77 shots at goal last season and with a haul of 15 goals, he scored 1 goal with every 5.13 shots. Nasri played 30 games for Arsenal and had a total of 51 shots, scoring 10 goals- this is 1 goal for every 5.1 shots- the duo are virtually identical when it comes to the clinical nature of their finishing.

Conclusion

Judging by the stats it certainly appears that there would be no drop in overall quality if Mata and Gervinho prove to be a straight swap for Fabregas and Nasri. Indeed, their arrival may offer Wenger more options and could even give the Arsenal manager the budget too strengthen his much-maligned central defence.

Weighing up the current squad in addition, then, an attacking midfield three of Gervinho left, Mata central and Walcott on the right could be Wenger’s strongest first-choice picks next term, with the possibilities afforded to Wenger in the upcoming campaign along the lines of:

AML- 1st Choice- Gervinho. 2nd Mata. Back-up Arshavin, Vela
AMC- 1st Choice- Mata. 2nd Ramsey. Back-up Rosicky
AMR- 1st Choice- Walcott. 2nd Gervinho Back-up Arshavin, Vela