Title hopefuls Roma proving harder to beat without star man Salah

A month ago the line of questioning Luciano Spalletti faced implied that if he was to win anything at Roma this season and end a near decade long wait for a trophy, it would have to be the Coppa Italia or the Europa League. Roma had just lost to Juventus in Turin and the title race already looked over. The gap at the top was four points and, although that doesn’t seem like a lot, it felt like seven at the time as everybody expected the champions to win their game in hand against Crotone.

Victory against Roma followed wins in the Turin derby and another at the J Stadium against Atalanta, Italy’s most in-form team. A familiar ominous feeling began to take hold. Juventus would surely not let this slip now. An unprecedented sixth straight Scudetto began to look like only a matter of time. But not anymore. Roma are now within a point of the Old Lady and while she has still yet to play Crotone, belief is growing that the title race could go down to the wire.

It feels strange to say it and don’t take this is as a knee jerk reaction to Juventus’ defeat in Florence on Sunday night, but Roma look the more solid, more balanced team at the moment.  Before going down in Turin, Roma had already started to show a new side to themselves. The criticism of them earlier in the season was that they were too soft, not mentally tough enough and occasionally too casual, often allowing opponents back into games that should have been dead and buried.

For weeks Spalletti drilled it into his team that they had to be more like Juventus, they had to learn how to win ugly and edge close games. The wins in the Rome derby and at home to Milan were steps in the right direction. Second best for an hour, Roma stayed in both games, digging deep and finding ways to take maximum points. That trend has continued on the other side of the Juventus defeat. In fact, it has become even more pronounced as Spalletti has turned Roma’s supposed weakness into a strength. They can out-finesse teams and now get tough when the tough get going. There is substance as well as style.

Against Genoa, for instance, Roma beat their hosts at their own game, playing aggressive, smash-mouth football. At times this season Genoa have bullied opponents at Marassi, beating up Juventus, Napoli and Fiorentina. So it was a surprise when this apparently “soft” Roma team gave them a dose of their own medicine - committing more fouls (13) than their hosts - and won 1-0 just as they did on Sunday away to Udinese.

Of course, on both occasions Spalletti would have liked there to have been more daylight between them and their opponents. In each game Wojciech Szczesny pulled off some breathtaking saves. But don’t let that fool you into thinking Roma got lucky. They looked in control and are playing without lapses in concentration from kick off to the final whistle.

Many thought Mo Salah’s absence this winter would hurt Roma. His ability to turn defence into attack with a sudden burst of acceleration was sorely missed for a half against Juventus and he wasn’t up to speed anyway following recent injury. Edin Dzeko isn’t the same without him. Salah has created 47 chances this season and the most from open play per game (2.8) in Europe's top 5 leagues, setting up three of his teammate’s goals.

Capocannoniere for much of the campaign, Dzeko has now scored just once in seven games and has been overtaken by Mauro Icardi and Andrea Belotti in the scoring charts. He blasted a penalty over the bar at the weekend and his conversion rate has dropped from 15.2% in weeks one to 16 to just 4.5% in weeks 17 to 20. The ratio of his shots that are on target has also fallen from 49.4% to 36.4%.

However, while things aren’t coming as easily to Dzeko as they were earlier in the season, the rest of the team is not suffering the same degree of separation anxiety. Roma are more compact without Salah. His ability to stretch opponents is something of a double edged sword as it can leave Roma stretched as well. If they then lose the ball, their opponents have huge spaces to play in. It’s the Salah paradox. Without him Roma are harder to play through, harder to break down.

 

This development started with the return of Antonio Rüdiger from injury. With him in the defence, Roma have conceded only 0.67 goals per game. Without him, that figure almost doubles (1.09). The three and a half defence also looks like a winning formula. For instance, when Fazio steps out, wing-back Emerson Palmieri comes across in his place and the backline keeps its shape. Fazio, Emerson and Bruno Peres have all come on leaps and bounds in recent months.

It might raise eyebrows among Spurs fans but Fazio has been nothing short of a revelation and deserves consideration as the signing of Roma's season, with only Salah and Dzek earning a higher WhoScored.com rating (7.44). He was like a wall against Genoa making 22 clearances, a season high in Serie A. Roma have now kept four clean sheets in their last six games. A defence that conceded 9.2 shots per game from week one to 16, 4.5 of which were on target and seven in the penalty area has conceded 6.3 in the last three games, 3.7 of which were on target and only 4.3 in the penalty area.

Roma's midfield is also making the difference. Radja Nainggolan got the winner in Udine and interprets the Perrotta role well for Spalletti. Kevin Strootman also looks back to his best. It was his lofted pass that Nainggolan put away on the volley on Sunday.

Make no mistake Roma have the consistency to push Juventus. In his first year back, Spalletti notched up 87 points over 38 games. There aren’t many teams in Europe who have been as reliable. Look at it this way: the second half of last season was Roma's best since Claudio Ranieri almost ruined Inter's treble in 2010. The first half of this one is the best since they last won the Scudetto in 2001.

Juventus will have to be on their toes. This weekend is one of the few times Roma fans are allowed to support Lazio. If their rivals do them a favour on Sunday and beat the league leaders, things could get very interesting indeed as long as Roma don’t repeat what happened in Cagliari earlier in this season when they threw away a 2-0 lead and drew 2-2. The Giallorossi have come a long way since then. Could this be their year?