Team Focus: All Change for France as they Chase the Impossible Dream

“We’re ready to die on the pitch to get there.” So said Olivier Giroud, speaking of how “angry” he was at France’s World Cup play-off defeat to Ukraine on Friday. Something probably already died on the pitch at the Olympiyskiy that night – France’s hope of taking their place among the 32 World Cup finalists in Brazil next summer - but neither the Arsenal striker, his teammates or coach Didier Deschamps intend to give up just yet, despite the prospect of overturning the two-goal lead of Mikhail Fomenko’s side being a historic one. Never has a team recovered from two goals down after a play-off first leg to qualify for the World Cup.

What we are certain of is that a very different France side will take the field in Saint-Denis on Tuesday night. The absence of Giroud’s friend and clubmate Laurent Koscielny is enforced, of course, after the latter was sent off towards the end of Friday’s game, but one wonders whether he would have made the cut anyway. There is acute speculation in France that Les Bleus will go into Tuesday’s match with an all-new central defence partnership, with the experienced Eric Abidal visibly struggling in the first game. Abidal won just 1 tackle during the match in Kiev. Only Franck Ribéry (0) completed less. It appears likely that Raphaël Varane will partner Liverpool’s Mamadou Sakho here.

The main focus of the French media’s ire in the aftermath of Friday’s defeat has not, however, been Koscielny, despite the centre-back’s calamitous end to the game in conceding a penalty and then seeing red. That dubious role has instead fallen to Samir Nasri – perhaps unsurprisingly, given his volatile relationship with the French media.

Nasri’s performance in Kiev was inescapably modest; he rated 6.78 on WhoScored given his failure to manage a single dribble in the number 10 role. The Manchester City midfielder did get 2 shots on target, but could have done better with both.

Yet most of Nasri’s shortcomings stemmed from factors out of his control. Firstly, his position, with Deschamps instructing him to take a central role despite the fact he has played exclusively wide with City this season. Secondly, there was the decision to start Nasri at all, at the expense of Mathieu Valbuena.

The usefulness of Valbuena to France has become indisputable in recent months. Taking away the 6-0 friendly win against Australia at the Parc des Princes (which Valbuena only played the final 25 minutes of, with the scoring already complete) the Marseille man has been directly implicated in 7 of France’s last 12 goals, courtesy of 2 goals and 5 assists. 

There has been much discussion of Valbuena’s physical state recently in the Hexagon, with the triple demands as a central figure in Ligue 1, Champions League and national side appearing to grind him down a little (it must be noted that Valbuena himself has refused to use this as an excuse for a dip in performance).

Even so, there appears little statistical case for preferring Nasri to Valbuena. The former averages 2.3 key passes per game, is fouled an average of 0.6 times per game and completes an average 1.2 dribbles. For even a fatigued Valbuena, the figures are 3.5 key passes, being fouled 3.4 per match, and managing 2.2 dribbles per game. It is hardly surprising that Valbuena’s return to the starting line-up is widely expected on Tuesday. 

The creative burden will not all fall on Marseille’s Petit Vélo, however, with much expected of Ribéry. He looked the most likely to score on Friday night, with 42% of France’s attacks in Kiev coming down the left side populated by Ribéry and Patrice Evra.

There may be even more opportunity for Bayern Munich’s livewire in the second game, as there is little doubt that Ukraine will miss Artem Fedetskiy. The Dnipro right-back is suspended after picking up a first-leg booking, having played Ballon d’Or contender Ribéry superbly well in Kiev. Fedetskiy made a match-high of 7 tackles, 3 effective clearances and 2 interceptions for a rating of 7.68.

Centre-back Olexandr Kucher is also banned, having collected his second yellow card of the night deep into stoppage time in Kiev. He will be replaced by his Shakhtar Donetsk teammate Yaroslav Rakitskiy, but is a big miss, having garnered a 7.39 rating after 6 successful tackles, 5 interceptions and 5 successful clearances.

These crumbs of encouragement will be useless if France can’t get their own attacking equilibrium right. That should start with a rejig in midfield, with the recall of Yohan Cabaye something that would liberate Paul Pogba to have more influence in the attacking third. The Juventus player did have 3 shots but none on target and not a single key pass, a drop in his imperious club form which has seen him score 4 in 10 Serie A starts, also supplying 2 assists and averaging 1.5 key passes in midfield.

The need to shoot on sight might be another reason for retaining Loïc Rémy instead of recalling his fellow Lyon youth product Karim Benzema. Rémy was disappointing in Kiev, not managing a shot on goal, but his club form – 7 goals and 1 assist in 8 Premier League starts – suggests that this was a hiccup. He is also far better suited to playing wide in a 4-3-3 than Benzema, should Deschamps opt for that.  

Ukraine will be a tough nut to crack, a fact underlined by goalkeeper Andriy Pyatov, who has now gone 730 minutes without conceding a goal for Ukraine – a national record. The Shakhtar man remains a shaky handler of the ball, and given France’s lack of touchline huggers apart from Ribéry, more implication is required from their full-backs.  Mathieu Debuchy managed 1 key pass in Kiev and Evra didn’t complete any, while the latter’s last 36 crosses for his country have failed to find a teammate.

It is an uphill task, and France must get it right at both ends. Only Finland failed to score at the Stade de France amongst visitors during qualifying. One assumes that a clean sheet will be a prerequisite to any successful comeback, however unlikely.

Can France become the first national side to overturn a two-goal deficit in the UEFA World Cup playoffs and progress to the World Cup? Let us know in the comments below