Finding value at this summer's Copa America beyond favourites Brazil

This summer’s Copa America has been relatively smooth sailing with no major casualties at the completion of the group phase, despite Argentina’s best efforts. As we gear up to the business end of the tournament, we delve into the quarter-final ties and assess the chances of anything other than a Brazil triumph next month.

Brazil are understandably the clear favourites. They are the host nation and have strongest squad at the tournament, even without star man Neymar at their disposal. It’s fair to say that bookmakers are extremely confident of Brazil winning this summer’s Copa America. Blacktype are offering the best odds, if you can call them that, on a Brazil triumph, at just 6/5.

It would be a surprise if Brazil didn’t win the tournament but that isn’t to say shocks won’t happen en route to the final. Brazil, after all, collapsed under the pressure of hosting the 2014 World Cup and were humiliated 7-1 by eventual winners Germany in the semi-finals.

Tite’s side face Paraguay in the quarter-finals, against whom they have an unusual record against in the competition. Paraguay made it to the final in 2011 and last four in 2015 and in both editions they eliminated Brazil on penalties. In fact, Brazil haven’t even made it past the quarter-final stage since they went on to win the competition 12 years ago. Is it worth considering any other nation?

Argentina – best price at 11/2 with Bet365

With Lionel Messi in their ranks, you can never truly discount Argentina’s chances. They have made the final in each of the last two Copa America tournaments, though a repeat this summer does seem unlikely. Argentina failed to win their first two matches and required a 2-0 win over Qatar in their final game to progress from Group B.

Argentina head coach Lionel Scaloni has chopped and changed throughout the tournament and looks a man bereft of any real conviction how to get the best out of his crop of players. More changes are expected when they face Venezuela in the quarter-finals and it would not be at all surprising if they were knocked out.

Uruguay – best price at 13/2 with Blacktype

Uruguay have generally been considered the best of the rest in international football for the last decade. There are few countries in the world at present with a better strike force on paper than Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani for Uruguay, while a defensive duo of Jose Gimenez and Diego Godin is as resilient as they come.

Their main problem, however, has been the balance in midfield, or lack of, in recent major tournaments. Oscar Tabarez has been the manager of Uruguay for 13 years and by now you would have thought he would have a better idea how to unlock the potential of Suarez and Cavani. Uruguay came through their group relatively unscathed, though a 2-2 draw with a wildly inexperienced Japan side again raises questions about their chances.

Colombia – best price of 17/2 with Blacktype

Colombia were the only side to boost a 100 per cent record in the group stage of the tournament and one of only two nations, along with Brazil, yet to concede a single goal. Carlos Queiroz has commendably also put sentiment to one side and dropped iconic striker Radamel Falcao in favour of in-form Atalanta forward Duvan Zapata.

Los Cafeteros are also benefitting from the fact talismanic creator James Rodriguez has something to prove this summer. The 2014 World Cup in Brazil provided Rodriguez with a springboard to superstardom status and now he returns five years on looking to use this summer’s Copa America as a chance to reboot his stagnating career. He finished the group stage as the sixth highest WhoScored rated player in the competition (7.79 rating).

Chile – best price of 12/1 with Betvictor

Chile are looking to create this summer by becoming the first country to win the current format of the Copa America three times in a row. Chile beat Argentina on penalties in 2015 and 2016 and are in better shape than many expected this summer. Failing to secure top spot in Group C has handed them a tough quarter-final draw with Colombia but that won’t faze Reinaldo Rueda’s men.

Alexis Sanchez has endured a nightmare two years at club level and was Chile’s biggest dilemma heading into this summer’s tournament, but the Manchester United No.7 has rekindled his old magic at the perfect moment. Sanchez was the highest WhoScored rated player in the group stage of the competition (8.27) after playing a direct hand in three goals in as many matches.

Verdict

Any major tournament they do not win is considered a failure for Brazil, let alone ones in front of their own supporters. Neymar’s injury has left Tite without a genuine world class name but they still have a deep-enough squad to get to the final at the very least.

If you are looking for value outside of the hosts, then Colombia and Chile are well worth consideration. Obviously, one of those teams will be eliminated over the weekend, as they are drawn against each other, but the confidence the winner will get from winning will be huge. Given Chile’s recent success in the competition, it’s difficult to make a case against Rueda’s men. Eliminating a genuine contender like Colombia could propel Sanchez and Co to historic success this summer.