League Focus: The Race to Secure MLS Playoff Spots This Weekend

It’s getting to that stage of the season. Every side in MLS bar one (the Portland Timbers) has played 31 league games, meaning that by and large those sides on the brink of the playoffs have three games to make or break their year.

Of course, some have already sealed their post-season fate. The Seattle Sounders, LA Galaxy and DC United have all done so, with the Montreal Impact, Chivas USA, the Chicago Fire, the Colorado Rapids and the San Jose Earthquakes all out of contention. So other which teams are in the best and worst shape? Who will clinch those precious remaining playoff places?

Sporting Kansas City are one of four teams that can clinch their spot in the playoffs this weekend, with the Chicago Fire the only thing standing between Peter Vermes’ side and such an outcome.

As was the case last season, Sporting KC’s strength can be found in their defence, where they boast the best shots conceded per game average in the league (9.9). The defensive pairing of Aurelien Collin and Matt Besler might not have been as solid as in recent years, but the duo have still contributed to an impressive tackles per game average of 18.2, the fourth highest in MLS.

It could be pointed out that Vermes’ side are somewhat more reactive rather than proactive, as shown by their interception average of 15.6 per game, which is among the league’s lowest. And of course, they are the dirtiest team in MLS, committing an average of 15.0 fouls per game.

Another side that can clinch their place in the Eastern Conference playoffs are the New England Revolution, who will take a top five place with a win over Montreal or if Toronto FC lose to the New York Red Bulls on Saturday. And the Revolution have arguably been the biggest success story of the final third of the regular season, with the signing of USA midfielder Jermaine Jones giving Jay Heaps’ team momentum ahead of the post-season.

It is in midfield where New England have found impetuous this season, with Lee Nguyen, Diego Fagundez and Jones among the most productive in the league. Nguyen is a hub for the Revs, averaging 2.2 key passes per game while also leading New England for shots on goal per game (2.7).

In the Western Conference Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas can both clinch their places should one of a number of scenarios come to pass over the weekend. While the injury to playmaker Mauro Diaz somewhat halted their charge, FC Dallas have developed significantly as a unit under Oscar Pareja this season. The Texans have actually become the league’s most dangerous set piece side this term, scoring 19 times that way.

That’s also reflected by how few shots they take from outside the box, with just 38% of FC Dallas’ shots coming from beyond 18 yards – the second lowest ratio in the league. Meanwhile, a league high 8% of their shots have come from within the six-yard box. FC Dallas know how to make best use of their set plays.

At the other end of the spectrum are Real Salt Lake, who are one of the best passing teams in MLS, with Jeff Cassar’s men maintaining the second highest average share of possession in the league (53.9%). In Kyle Beckerman and Javier Morales RSL have two of the best passers in MLS, with the former playing an average of 66 passes per game – only Will Trapp of the Columbus Crew can boast more.

But it is in the final third where Morales holds most influence, with the Argentinean averaging 3.3 key passes per game – the second highest average in the league behind Landon Donovan. His assist tally of 11 for the season isn’t bad either.

At the peak of their play RSL can control a game like no other, yet they desperately lack the kind of consistency Jason Kreis used to have with them. There is still time for that consistency to be found though.

Toronto FC’s late summer slump has seen them fall out of the top five in the Eastern Conference, although only three points separates them from the last playoff place and the Columbus Crew. There’s always the chance that if TFC  top scorer Jermain Defoe (11 goals) can commit to the cause he could reignite the understanding with Michael Bradley – one of the best passers in the league – that was so productive for the BMO Field club in the early stages of the season.

And then there’s the Vancouver Whitecaps, who having struggled for goals all season have found their groove just in time to make a playoff charge. Just two points separate Carl Robinson’s side with their Cascadia rivals Portland, and having claimed wins in three of their last five games the Caps look good to claim that final place in the Western Conference.

Regular season success can be charted in the shots on goal per game average, with three of the league’s four most prolific shooters already qualified for the playoffs (Seattle, LA Galaxy and DC United). In fact, the correlation between league position and shots on goal average is actually rather solid all the way through MLS. Chivas USA are slumped at the foot of the standings, in both the league itself and the shots on goal average column.

Chicago, Houston, San Jose, Montreal and Colorado are also down there with Chivas USA, just as they are in the regular season standings. It’s as good a way as any to predict who will clinch the last few playoff spots up for grabs.

MLS by its very nature is wildly unpredictable but it’s about at this stage of the season that an order starts to take form. Guessing how that order will look is another matter.

Who do you think will make the playoffs? Let us know in the comments below