Dortmund vs Bayern: Will Götze Or Kroos Be The Bigger Loss?
“It was like a heart attack,” Borussia Dortmund head coach Jürgen Klopp told The Guardian when speaking of the moment he heard that Mario Götze had agreed to move to Bayern Munich over the summer. The young Germany international has become a pivotal member of Die Schwarzgelben’s starting XI in recent years, offering an attacking and goalscoring threat from behind the striker as Dortmund secured domestic glory in two of the last three seasons.
However, with Götze ruled out of Saturday’s Champions League final with a hamstring injury, the 20-year-old has already played his final game for the former Bundesliga champions, much to the dismay of Klopp, general manager Michael Zorc and supporters of the club.
The deal will naturally come as a huge blow to Dortmund, who have regularly utilised the young Germany international as a creative fulcrum in their aesthetically pleasing, free flowing attacking brand of football that has won many an admirer across Europe. Yet, to have lost such an influential member of their team in their biggest game of the 21st century will come as a major blow. Furthermore, to see him depart to rivals Bayern is effectively another way of kicking a man while he’s down, while adding to the monopolisation of the Bundesliga, much to the displeasure of many a neutral.
While Dortmund will be without their primary creator, Bayern head coach Jupp Heynckes will be unable to call upon the services of Toni Kroos, with the midfielder also sidelined as a result of a knee problem. The Germany international started all but one of Bayern’s Champions League group games - the 6-1 win over Lille - and would be playing in the attacking trio behind striker Mario Mandzukic had he not sustained an injury early on in the 2-0 win over Juventus.
That the pairing will miss the final will not only be a blow to their respective teams, but also the neutral who had been hoping to see a hotly contested encounter between Germany’s top teams. The loss of Götze will come as the larger blow; the German has directly contributed to seven of Dortmund’s 23 Champions League goals this season (30.4%), with 5 assists and 2 goals. That figure is a sizeable mark up on Kroos’ 6.9%, with the Bayern midfielder contributing two goals but no assists to the 29 goals scored by Heynckes’ side. Not only does this highlight the attacking burden placed on the shoulders of Götze, as proven by Klopp’s side winning 65.2% of their Bundesliga games with Götze this season compared to 36.4% without him, but also that goals are more spread out across Heynckes' squad. When he started Arjen Robben in place of Kroos, Bayern were duly rewarded with a goal from the Dutchman in each leg against Barcelona.
This not only points towards the superior quality Bayern have in reserve, as noted in Robben’s contribution at the expense of Kroos, but also the theory that if Götze isn’t performing to his usually high standards or Klopp is without the services of his midfield lynchpin, then Dortmund aren’t as effective as a collective unit.
Be that as it may, comparing the average possession stats of the two teams when the players haven’t been available to start in both the Champions League and Bundesliga is somewhat telling, with Bayern averaging 59.1% when Kroos hasn’t started this season and only 56.7% in games he has started.
Meanwhile, while Götze was a key member of the Dortmund starting XI this season, when the young midfielder hasn’t started in the Bundesliga and Champions League, their average possession has been 55.6%, compared to 52.1% with him. This is somewhat surprising considering the creative impact Götze has on the team, although it maybe that Dortmund look to retain possession and carefully probe the opposition without being able to call upon his creative exploits to provide that moment of magic in the blink of an eye.
Understandably, as evident from the stats, Dortmund will miss Götze more than Bayern will miss Kroos. While Robben will likely start on the right wing of the attacking triumvirate for the latter, Kevin Großkreutz, should he start for the former, isn’t of the same quality as his compatriot with regards to creativity. Without the youngster starting, Dortmund’s attacking incisive will be blunted significantly against a powerful Bayern defence.
