The Expert: Ireland an awkward opponent for underachieving Austria
For Marko Arnautovic, there was no downplaying it, nor dismissing increasingly pressing questions about Austria’s poor results. He came right out and admitted it. “We are under a bit of pressure,” the Stoke City forward said, ahead of his country’s crunch qualifier with Ireland.
That is not just because Austria need to get back on track in Group D, though, or because they have already - on balance - dropped three points by losing to Serbia and drawing at home to Wales. It is also because this has been such a bad year, when a good young team desperately failed to live up to their potential in a poor Euro 2016 first-round exit. The criticism has only escalated since then, and it does make Saturday’s fixture at home to Ireland a genuinely critical match.
Martin O’Neill was more than willing to layer it on in the build-up to the game. “They need to get something out of the game to stay in it.”
It is a game against a tough team, too, and one that has probably done the opposite to Austria and made the most of their inferior quality. Ireland don’t have anything like the same technical talent as someone like David Alaba, but still got to the last 16 of Euro 2016 and really put up - and properly scaring hosts France - before going on to claim seven points from the opening three matches in this qualifying campaign. That included a 2-2 draw away to Serbia.
If Ireland are not exactly free-flowing, they are always awkward opposition, and Darren Randolph only emphasised all that by stating how they “want to go and frustrate [Austria] as much as possible”.
It is a day, however, that could begin to close out a few possibilities in this group. Because, just after Austria host Ireland, Serbia play Wales. It is one of only two occasions when the four teams in contention for qualification will directly face off, showcasing how unique this group is. Whereas every other pool has a traditional heavyweight expected to finish top, it is not the case here, where there isn’t even an outright minnow either. Georgia and Moldova also bring complications for four top sides of a fairly similar overall level.
All of this is given an extra layer of tension by the fact this is the last fixture before the long winter break, meaning any disappointed teams will have a long time to dwell on poor results. The wonder is what it would get like for Austria. The last few months have already seen a lot of criticism for star player Alaba.
It is actually one of the conspicuous trends in international football. If you are a medium-sized side’s outstanding player, well above the rest and particularly brilliant with your club, you tend to bear the brunt of any bad spells. Ireland have seen this a lot themselves, especially with assistant manager Roy Keane and his namesake Robbie, who retired just before this series started.
The irony is that Alaba is one of Austria’s main attacking players, but it’s not like scoring goals have been a problem. It has been keeping them out. Even in one of the lowest-quality groups in Euro 2016 - something that made their exit all the more pained and worthy of criticism - they still allowed 16 shots on their goal per game, one of the highest in the tournament. They haven’t exactly shored it up since, and always look vulnerable.
Again, it would seem that Ireland are precisely the wrong sort of opposition for that team, but O’Neill’s side have not quite been concrete at the back in recent games either. Serbia played through them quite easily in what was a conspicuously flat performance, before Georgia caused a number of scares. That tense 1-0 victory over the latter was one of just two clean sheets in their seven competitive games of 2016.
Again, the quality of the opposition have to be taken into account, but the point is that Ireland are supposed to be that bit more awkward. But then that’s the thing. A lot comes down to the abrasiveness of forwards like Jon Walters, although O’Neill will be missing the injured Shane Long. The Southampton striker is one of a number of absences on both sides, giving both managers’ problems in terms of personnel - or, rather, where to put them.
Wes Hoolahan is, for example, one of the most popular players in Ireland; one of the few with genuine continental talent, but has become something of a cause celebre because O’Neill has been so reluctant to use him from the start in competitive away games. He may have little option this time, even though the suggestions are that the Irish manager would be content to dig in for a draw.
Austria have even fewer options. They know that, to really energise their campaign, they absolutely need to beat Ireland. They’ve already dropped too many points, and it would be asking a lot to get two big away wins in 2017 to make up for what has happened.
The pressure is properly on already. The wonder is whether it might be what they need. Ireland, meanwhile, know they can sit tight.
