Telles vs Tagliafico: The important stats to consider behind Man Utd's interest
There is an all to familiar feeling about Manchester United as they enter the final two weeks of the transfer window. It was a summer that promised so much but has unsurprisingly delivered little. After spending the entire window being conservative with their money, it would shock no one if panic buttons were hit after last week's defeat to Crystal Palace.
Negotiations for Jadon Sancho have been at impasse for months and no breakthrough looks likely. Finally coming to terms with the fact Borussia Dortmund will not offer any discounts on Sancho, United are instead looking to address their shortcomings at the back with a new left-back on their radar.
After missing out on Real Madrid's Sergio Reguilon to Tottenham, United are now targeting Porto's Alex Telles. Personal terms have reportedly been agreed with the 27-year-old but they are yet to settle on a fee with their Portuguese counterparts, who are hoping to fetch around £20m. Telles wants to complete a move to Old Trafford by the end of the week but, in typical United fashion, that seems unlikely.
It may not even happen at all, as United are reportedly now weighing up a second summer raid of Ajax for Nicolas Tagliafico. It may of course be part of United's negotiating tactic to force Porto to drop their asking price of Telles but as Tagliafico was considered by Chelsea as a cut-price alternative to Ben Chilwell he is certainly worth paying closer attention to.
Valued by both clubs at around the same price, how exactly do the left-backs stack up statistically? Well, it's fair to say both have endured contrasting starts to the new campaign. Porto started their season with a 3-1 win over Braga at the weekend, with Telles playing a direct hand in all three goals, while Tagliafico was sent off 27 minutes into Ajax's league campaign.
Telles' display against Braga was not a one-off either. What stands out immediately about Telles is his extraordinary output for a left-back. The 27-year-old has incredibly played a direct hand in 59 goals in 127 league appearances for FC Porto since 2017/18, notably ranking seventh in the division in that period.It is therefore only natural United supporters would welcome his arrival. Liverpool's full-backs have raised the standard of players in their position and Telles' return on paper isn't too dissimilar to that of both Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Luke Shaw, meanwhile, simply hasn't materalised into what United had in mind when they made him one of the most expensive teenagers in the world six years ago. Injuries and certain managers haven't helped his career but United supporters are now completely numb to his relatively non-existent impact in the final third. Shaw has remarkably yielded just one goal and six assists in 97 Premier League apparances for United. Liverpool goalkeper Alisson registered more assists (1) than Shaw (0) in the Premier League in 2019/20. At this point, most new left-backs will give a feeling of improvement at Old Trafford.
However, a closer look at Telles' statistics make for interesting reading. The ex-Inter defender registered 19 goal involvements in the league last season but 15 were from set-pieces. That isn't to suggest both Alexander-Arnold and Robertson do all their damage from open play, because they don't, but they are on set-pieces for Jurgen Klopp's side. Will that also be the case for Telles at United? It's unlikely.
January signing Bruno Fernandes currently commands all deadball activity and for good reason. He has played a direct hand in 21 goals in 24 appearances in all competitions for United, scoring eight penalties in that time. The Portugal international hasn't missed a spot-kick for nearly five years. As arguably United's most important player, it's unlikely he will relinquish such a massive part of his game. It leave Telles facing the prospect of only ever taking set-pieces in the few games Fernandes is rested and even then he isn't guaranteed the role with Marcus Rashford always sniffing around free-kicks and corners.
So what exactly would Telles offer United? It may come as a surprise, but Shaw actually averaged more key passes from open play (0.7) in the league last season than Telles (0.6). The difference is marginal but still offers a different outlook on a player that managed eight assists to Shaw's 0. Not only that, but Shaw averaged more successful dribbles (0.9) than Telles (0.6) and was better defensively with a tackle success rate of 70.8% compared to Telles' 64.8%.
That's not to discard Telles as an option for United. If Solskjaer is simply on the market for a back-up when Shaw isn't available, which is quite often during the course of a season, then it makes sense, but supporters hoping Telles will transform United's attack will be disappointed. So perhaps there is more to United's interest in Tagliafico than meets the eye? Or certainly should be.
The Ajax defender only managed seven goal involvements (three goals, four assists) to Telles' 19 in the league last season but the 28-year-old averaged far more key passes from open play (1) than both. If only one goalscoring chance created per game seems insignificant, Robertson and Alexander-Arnold weighed in with 1.4 and 1.2, respectively, for context and everyone is aware how dangerous they are when Liverpool go forward.
Not just on the look out for a team-mate in the final third, Tagliafico isn't afraid to let loose himself either. In fact, the Argentina international attempted as many shots from open play in 24 league appearances last season (21) as Shaw managed in 53 appearances in the last two seasons combined. Shaw has no issue getting down the left flank but his problem is what comes next after reaching the box. It's often nothing, merely a pass inside or out to the winger.
With United back in the Champions League this season, Tagliafico could prove an even more attractive option for the Red Devils this summer. He played a key role in Ajax's run to the last four of the Champions League in 2018/19 and finished last season with more tackles pg (4.5) than any other player in the competition. Moreover, his WhoScored 10 rating against Lille in the group stage was the first acheived by a defender in a single Champions League game since we started gathering Opta data in 2009.
United aren't now pursuing a left-back because Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is unhappy with Brandon Williams but to enable him to move back to right-back and provide the squad with better balance heading into such a hectic schedule. Knowing there is a good chance Shaw's body will fail at some point this season, it would leave United desperately short at the back if they do not sign another left-back. Even Shaw has called for the club to sign new players even though they are looking at someone in his position. While the most likely option appears to be Telles, statistically speaking, at least, a move for Tagliafico may prove the better choice. Knowing United, however, do not be surprised if no one arrives.
They will purchase whoever is more expensive.