The major European leagues may be reaching their climax, but for those troubled souls who like their football blurrily streamed and late at night, there is only one show in town this weekend.
The Campeonato Brasileirão - Brazil’s top flight - returns on Saturday after a five-month hiatus, promising its usual blend of madcap stories, patchy action, young stars, bobbly pitches and aggro fans. And if that doesn’t sound like the recipe for a party, well son, best go running back to La Liga.
On the plus side, this is a championship defined by wide-open competition: there are never clear favourites for the title, with up to 12 sides more than capable of stumbling on a winning formula over the 38 games to come. Admittedly, this is largely down to the fraught nature of the beast – impatient chairmen, the black hole of the European transfer window, managerial roulette – but there is some joy to be gleaned from the unpredictability of it all.
This is also a league that demands stamina. The distances are huge, for a start, even if the absence of either of the Salvador teams this term means there is more of a southern slant than usual.
Then there is the frantic schedule, born of Brazilian football’s wrong-headed adherence to the traditions of local state leagues. The start of the season is usually a bit of a damp squib, with the top teams focusing on the Copa Libertadores and plenty of others attempting to negotiate Brazilian Cup ties, but points on the board are essential before the two-games-a-week madness that kicks in later on.
With your expectation levels duly tempered, then, here are the runners and riders.
Likely title challengers
Cruzeiro won their second successive title last time out and their dominance was underlined by the stats. 54.4% possession over the course of the season, 565 shots and 443 key passes were all division highs. The loss of Ricardo Goulart (13 goals) and the team’s highest rated player, according to WhoScored, Éverton Ribeiro (7.57) has hit them hard, however, and Marcelo Oliveira faces a tougher task this time out. Belo Horizonte neighbours Atlético Mineiro have also reshuffled, but still look dangerous.
.jpg "League Focus: Brasileirão 2015 Season Preview")
Corinthians came up short last time out but have looked sharp in the Libertadores and have an impressive squad. If Paolo Guerrero fires on all cylinders - the experienced Peruvian netted 24.5% of their goals last season - they will be there or thereabouts. The same is true of Internacional, who have plenty of creative players looking to supply the ammunition for Nilmar.
Chasing pack
Santos looked sharp in the Paulistão and will be hoping that Robinho continues his eye-catching renaissance. The veteran, who has 5 goals to his name from his last 9 competitive appearances, will be crucial to their hopes. São Paulo boast a squad of enormous potential, but question marks remain over their ability to perform to their level consistency, while Palmeiras appear to have stumbled upon a rhythm after a tricky few years. If Jorge Valdivia manages to get fit, they should do well. The Chilean, despite injury problems, gained a better WhoScored rating (7.18) than every regular starter for the Alviverde last season.
Grêmio will be keen to improve on their seventh-placed finish in 2014, when Luiz Felipe Scolari fixed the defence, but forgot about the attack. With Hernán Barcos having jumped ship, they still look a little light in the final third.
That’s not likely to be a problem for Fluminense, who can count on the proven goal-getting calibre of Fred as well as exciting Brazil Under-20 striker Kenedy, a rumoured target for Europe’s big boys. If the duo click, they should be good for a Libertadores spot. Bitter rivals Flamengo, meanwhile, should be aiming for the top half as they work around commendable self-imposed austerity measures.
Safe and sound
Now the only side from the north-east in the top flight, Sport looks like sure-fire midtable finishers. Diego Souza and Hernane could provide fireworks in attack, but there’s not the quality elsewhere to match. Atlético-PR and neighbours Coritiba are likely to revert to the mean this term after, respectively, a fine, albeit shocking, season, while unfashionable Goiás are likely to be solid enough to stay up.
Back in Série A after a year away, Vasco da Gama should have just enough to stave off a relegation battle. Key to their chances will be goalscoring centre-backs Rodrigo and Luan, as well as Gilberto, who has 9 goals to his name from 13 appearances following his loan switch from Toronto FC.
Strugglers and stragglers
That leaves us with five sides. Chapecoense and Figueirense both did well to beat the drop in 2014, but will almost certainly be involved in the relegation scrap again. The same is true of newly-promoted trio Joinville, Avaí and Ponte Preta, all of whom will be scratching round for late reinforcements in the next few weeks in order to boost survival hopes.
What are your predictions for the upcoming Brasileirão season? Let us know in the comments below
