Biggest xG underperformance, third fewest goals scored: The damning Man Utd stats that cost Ten Hag

 

It took a contentious defeat at West Ham for Manchester United to sack Erik ten Hag on Monday. The writing had been on the wall for the Dutchman for some time but Sunday's loss at the London Stadium proved to be the straw that – finally – broke the camel’s back. 

 

 

Ruud van Nistelrooy takes over in the interim as United scramble for a permanent replacement to turn their fortunes around. Many will suggest that Ten Hag should have gone much sooner. The FA Cup win over Manchester City back in May feels a lifetime ago now, and even that triumph at Wembley was a stay of execution for the former Ajax boss. 

 

Ten Hag spoke frequently about trusting his process, but in truth; there was no real direction for the club. The summer just gone was supposedly the one that would see United finally form an identity following the investment from INEOS yet they have looked just as toothless as ever. Defeat at West Ham means United have won just one of their last eight games in all competitions and the stats reinforce the club’s decision to relieve the 54-year-old of his duties. 

 

Only Southampton and Crystal Palace (both 6) have scored fewer goals than Manchester United (8) in the Premier League this season. An xG underperformance of -7.69 is the biggest underperformance in England’s top tier, and second only to Real Betis in Europe’s top five leagues. 

 

The failure to score frequently despite the capture of Joshua Zirkzee over the summer, combined with the big money additions of Rasmus Hojlund, Antony and Mason Mount during his time at the club, is a major reason for his dismissal. To his credit, United do look more solid defensively following an open 2023/24 campaign. 11.7 shots conceded per game is the sixth fewest in the division, while they have conceded just 11 times, yet ultimately; scoring goals win matches and United under Ten Hag, particularly in the opening weeks of the campaign, have struggled to break opponents down. 

 

 

For a United side that has Van Nistelrooy, and recently had Benni McCarthy, on the coaching staff, the inability to routinely hit the back of the net despite two goalscoring strikers on the sidelines suggests a wider problem from above. United haven’t necessarily struggled to create chances this season – they rank fourth for key passes per game (11.8) and fifth for big chances created (24) – though in turn; have returned the second lowest conversion rate (6.2%). It's no surprise either, then, that no team has missed more big chances than United (22) in England's top tier. 

 

It's a long standing issue that Ten Hag failed to rectify. United have scored just 126 league goals since the Dutchman was appointed, that ranking 10th in the division, and this despite being able to call upon the likes of Hojlund, Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho, among others, at one point or another following his 2022 appointment. For context, over the same period, Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah have scored 118 league goals between them. 

 

 

He has overseen United’s second worst ever start to a Premier League campaign after nine games, collecting just 11 points to leave the club in 14th, just two points above Leicester and Everton, two teams that only recently secured their first win of the season. 

 

United started brightly under Ten Hag yet were unable to build upon an impressive debut campaign at Old Trafford. Perhaps the Dutchman set expectations too high after a bright first season, however the failure to push on after a third-placed finish and Carabao Cup success has ultimately cost him his position as United boss. The damning stats this season alone were enough to justify the club’s decision to cut ties with Ten Hag.

Biggest xG underperformance, third fewest goals scored: The damning Man Utd stats that cost Ten Hag