Liverpool’s irreplaceable star Firmino to end Man City title hopes

When Liverpool host Manchester City on New Years Eve there’s a very real possibility that the result could be decisive in the race for the Premier League title. With Chelsea already six and seven points clear respectively of their two closest challengers, the Blues have the chance to - for a matter of hours at least - stretch their lead to nine with a home win over Stoke.

A victory would see the Blues equal Arsenal’s Premier League record of 13 consecutive wins since defeat to the Gunners back in September, and put real pressure on both Klopp and Guardiola’s charges ahead of their evening kick-off. It would render the game all but a must win for both sides in their quest to secure Premier League glory, with a draw leaving Conte’s men with a minimum 8-point lead.

Fortunately for both managers then, their teams are packed with match winners, and while he only ended a 6-game goal drought a matter of days ago, Roberto Firmino is primed to play a decisive role.

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While compatriot Philippe Coutinho tends to steal the limelight for Liverpool, and understandably so, it’s the former Hoffenheim forward that is arguably the Reds one irreplaceable player.

It was, in fact, his performance in the 4-1 win against Manchester City at the Etihad last November that really marked the emergence of Firmino as a first team regular. Indeed, no teammate has made more league appearances since that day (39), with the 25-year old left out of the starting XI just twice in said outings. It's fair to say that if managers do indeed have their favourites, Firmino is Klopp's, and for good reason.

The German's side is certainly adversely affected by the current injury to Coutinho and has felt the absence of Adam Lallana at times this season too, but it’s Firmino that best embodies the style of his side.

Unselfish, elegant and industrious, the Brazilian may not have been an instant hit in the Premier League but is now proving to be the perfect fit for English football and this current Liverpool team in particular. Given that he has started all 17 of his Premier League appearances this season in a front three, many would point to a modest goal tally of 6 as an underachievement but such is the approach of Klopp that his central striker is no longer relied upon to carry the goal threat.

Instead Firmino, who has started ten matches in a centre-forward position this season, is the most important player for the side in terms of making room not only for those flanking him in that system but also runners from midfield. He doesn’t possess the pace of Sadio Mane and therefore drops deeper between the lines to allow the summer signing to exploit the space that he has vacated.

The Senegalese is not the only man to profit from Firmino’s intelligence off the ball, and it’s no coincidence that Adam Lallana is in the best form of his Liverpool career given the freedom and opportunity to break into the box from deep. This willingness to withdraw from his starting position has seen the Brazil international create more clear cut chances than any teammate (6), while only Alexis Sanchez (45) has made more key passes in total of all forwards in the league than Firmino (40). Moreover, his work off the ball has seen him produce the most tackles of any forward (27), which will surely be crucial against a vulnerable defence this weekend.

The fact that the Reds’ central striker is often not the focal point or most advanced player in their attack makes them so unpredictable to read. The visit, then, of a Manchester City backline that has been suspect to say the least this season will have the home support optimisitc of another win over a side that have become a favourable foe, winning three successive league meetings, with nine goals scored and just two conceded.

Firmino has been heavily involved in the last two of those victories, with a direct hand in four goals against the Citizens (2 goals and 2 assists). Considering his form at home this season and a return to the scoresheet against Stoke last time out, he’ll certainly be confident of playing a decisive role once more. With four of his six league strikes and all three of his assists coming at Anfield this season, a WhoScored.com rating of 8.10 in home appearances is bettered only by Eden Hazard (8.35) in the Premier League.

With both John Stones and Vincent Kompany unavailable to Guardiola, it remains to be seen whether the visiting manager will opt for a back three or four but it seems certain that Aleksandr Kolarov will be at the heart of the defence regardless. Given the Serbian’s propensity to vacate his position in that role, as we’ve witnessed on numerous occasions this season, the Liverpool attack is the last that the travelling fans would want to face as they attempt to welcome in the New Year with a win.

Up against one of the most intelligent forwards in the league, this is sure to be a real test for the much maligned City rearguard. While he will want to add to his own goal tally against Saturday’s opponents, Firmino’s movement may well be the key to opening up a defence that hasn’t needed invitation to do so this season and help produce a win that could see Liverpool emerge as Chelsea’s only real competition for the title.