Team Focus: How Bayern Munich Could Line Up Under Pep Guardiola

When Bayern Munich head coach Pep Guardiola confirmed he only wanted to sign Thiago Alcántara this summer during his press conference last week, it all but derailed Manchester United’s pursuit of the Spaniard. David Moyes’ side had been courting the 22-year-old and appeared set to secure the signature of the youngster, only for the European champions to confirm a £21.6m deal for the player on Sunday evening.

The move saw the best team on the continent become significantly stronger, while also hinting to a change in system under Pep. During Jupp Heynckes’ final year with the Bundesliga outfit, a 4-2-3-1 was regularly utilised as the German side swept all before them, dropping points only five times as they landed their 23rd domestic title. In turn they became the first German team to complete the treble following their DFB-Pokal victory over VfB Stuttgart and the 2-1 Champions League win against Borussia Dortmund.

With the acquisition of Thiago, not to mention the arrival of Mario Götze at the beginning of July, it left football fans pondering how the club will line up under Guardiola next season. The abundance of talent available to the 42-year-old will see him, as clichéd as it sounds, left with a selection headache over the 2013/14 campaign as he aims to hand the regular starters ample playing time to keep them happy, while integrating his latest signings into a system that saw his then-Barcelona side conquer Europe between 2008 and 2012.

Over the 34-game season, not to mention the arduous Champions League, World Club Cup and DFB-Pokal campaign, it’s fair to say each player will receive their fair share of game time, especially if they progress in each competition. Yet, the main conundrum will be what formation and personnel will be called upon in order to maintain a similar level of domestic and European dominance, especially if Guardiola is to guide a team that would become the first to defend the Champions League trophy since its 1992 inception.

A possible formation mooted initially is the 4-6-0 that Spain adopted during the 2012 European Championship, with new signing Götze filling the role of ‘false 9’. With an average WhoScored.com rating of 7.79 with Dortmund last season, the Germany international falls behind only Franck Ribéry (8.38) in regards to potential starters that would fill the six spots in the middle of the park. Using this method, the remaining quartet of positions would be filled by Toni Kroos (7.66), Thomas Müller (7.65), Bastien Schweinsteiger (7.6) and Arjen Robben (7.54), with Javi Martínez (7.38), much like his final season with Athletic Bilbao, lining up at centre-back alongside Dante, as hinted by Guardiola

For Thiago, however, this would only see him secure a place on the substitutes bench, with the recent arrival garnering an average rating of 7.07, with even peripheral squad member Xherdan Shaqiri (7.18) and Brazil international Luiz Gustavo (7.08) ranked ahead of the Spaniard in that respect. Focusing on the starters, with his high average rating it’s understandable why Ribéry could be the first name on the teamsheet under Guardiola. The Frenchman created the most clear cut chances (21), attained the most assists (14) and picked up the most man of the match awards (11) in the Bundesliga last season, despite starting just 24 of the 34 domestic games last season.

Add in his 10 goals and with a direct contribution of 24.5% to Bayern's tally, such an input saw him handed a new four-year deal, and while he may not have played a competitive fixture under Guardiola, it’s likely the club's hierarchy would’ve consulted him over a new contract prior to it being offered to the winger. This comes off the back of Robben also extending his stay at the Allianz Arena, although it remains to be seen how pivotal a role he may play under Guardiola next season. Part of the reason for his increased playing time in the tail end of the season came as Kroos picked up an injury in the Champions League encounter with Juventus.

Regardless, Robben repaid the faith shown in him with a man of the match performance in the Champions League final. While his rating stands him in good stead; it can be argued that he’ll be relegated back to the bench in order to accommodate Mario Mandzukic depending on formation, which in turn could see Müller brought further forward to the right-wing and Götze drop deeper into midfield. This would likely be the case if Guardiola opts against a 4-6-0 and instead reverts back to his favoured 4-3-3 that worked so well during his time with the Blaugrana. The arrival of Robert Lewandowski next summer suggests this may be the case, with Mandzukic expected to reprise his role as the leading marksman.

The Croatia international earned his move to Bayern 12 months ago following an impressive European Championship display and duly chipped in with 15 Bundesliga goals, with the onus on the striker being to bring his teammates into action. One of his style’s of play is that he likes to do layoffs and flick ons, exhibited in that he performed 84 of the former and 29 of the latter last season. While neither were in the top five of each respective category, for a team that prefers to play possession football, it indicates that Mandzukic possesses the capability of capitalising on the opportunity to assist a teammate either in the air or with the ball on the floor.

A relatively straight forward midfield triumvirate ahead of the defence under Guardiola is expected, regardless of the arrivals of Götze and Thiago, with Schweinsteiger, Kroos and Müller the trio supposedly set to play as the three in front of the back line, should Guardiola opt for the 4-6-0 that many are tipping the club to operate under next season. This would likely see Kroos perform the duties of the holding midfielder, as per Pep’s decision to line him up in the role during the weekend's 4-0 friendly win over financially stricken Hansa Rostock.

Yet, even if Schweinsteiger were to be dropped deeper to accommodate two more midfielders, it would hardly be viewed as a disaster. Granted, his best performances came when paired with Martinez in the ‘doppel sechs’ last season, but in averaging 2.8 tackles per game - the most of any Bayern player - it’s evident that the 28-year-old can perform the role if need be. With the Spaniard operating at the back and the likelihood of him stepping forward to link the defence and midfield particularly high, he'd play a role much like Gerard Piqué's during Guardiola’s Barcelona tenure.

The performances of Martínez at centre-back could prove vital, in fact, to a possible third formation being used by Guardiola, with a 4-1-4-1 the system the Spaniard used during the previous two pre-season friendlies. Both times Kroos has operated as the lone midfielder in front of the defence as Pep experiments ahead of the new season.

Should this be the case, then it will further highlight the importance of Martínez when Guardiola settles on a system for the first game of the season. As mentioned, the ability to step forward into midfield would allow Bayern to retain possession - only Barcelona (69%) averaged more possession per game than Bayern (63.6%) last season across Europe’s top five leagues - and add another body in midfield to provide the necessary protection to the holding midfielder, be it Kroos or, as expected, Schweinsteiger.

This again means Mandzukic would provide the firepower up front and then it’s an abundance of riches for whom Guardiola can pick to support the Croatian. Should he opt for Kroos, then it could, in theory, allow Thiago to start in this particular system. This would be determined on Müller starting on the right wing, meaning Robben dropping to the bench and Götze and Thiago starting behind the lone striker, should Pep start Mandzukic and not integrate the ‘false 9’.

Either way, not only is the strength in Bayern’s ranks staggering to say the least - many would argue they now boast the best midfield in the world - but the versatility and quality in depth available to the Spaniard means he could quite easily alter his tactics and formations depending on the opposition or the way a domestic or European encounter is panning out. While Thiago’s WhoScored.com rating of 7.07 last season was lower than that of his future teammates, the probability of him garnering plenty of first-team action remains high given the number of competitive action the squad will face over the duration of the 2013/14 campaign.