Team Focus: Swansea's Pleasing Passing Won't Guarantee Survival
Since Swansea City were promoted to the Premier League, it's become customary to praise them for the way they've gone about their business after narrowly escaping relegation to the Conference in 2003. This, it seemed, was how to run a club: setting a philosophy, buying players to fit that and then appointing a coach to play in that way with those players. That remains true, and Swansea's model is still one from which many clubs could learn, but for the first time the tide of praise has been checked. Something is amiss and it could lead to relegation.
Saturday's defeat to West Bromwich Albion is a major reason to worry, not just because it leaves them only four points above the relegation zone, having played two more games than Sunderland, who occupy that third-bottom slot, but because of the psychological effect. West Brom hadn't won since New Year's Day; if you slip up against them, then who *can* you reasonably expect to beat?
Swansea's own form is dreadful. Since thumping Newcastle United 3-0 on December 4, they have won just twice, against the bottom two sides: they beat Fulham 2-0 in Michael Laudrup's penultimate game and then thrashed Cardiff 3-0 in Garry Monk's first match in charge. In the four games since, though, they have taken just two points and, while maintaining that average of a point a game over the nine games that remain this season would probably just be enough to see them safe, taking a single point from back-to-back home games against Crystal Palace and West Brom suggests that is no given.
The theory has been mooted that the problems began with Laudrup, the suggestion being that he was too much of an individual and that he drew the club away from the possession-based philosophy that had brought the club such success. Those who follow that line of thought cite the return of Leon Britton to the starting line-up for each of Monk's five games in charge.
It is true that Swansea's possession has gone up from 59.85% in games under Laudrup this season to 60.72% in games under Monk (always allowing for the fact that his five games in charge represents an extremely small sample size), but to say Laudrup had moved away from possession ignores the fact that 59.85% represents an astonishingly high figure. No other side in the Premier League this season has more than 58.7% (Southampton). Last season Swansea under Laudrup averaged 55.3%; the season before, under Brendan Rodgers, the average was 58%.
In fact, what's intriguing looking at the statistics is how similar Swansea's figures last season are to this. Last season, they managed 13.3 shots per game of which 4.4 were on target; this season under Laudrup it was 13.5 of which 4.2 were on target. Little has changed since Monk took over: 13.2 shots per game with 4.2 on target. There was actually a marked improvement in shots conceded: 14.9 last season as opposed to 12.5 this. That figure has gone down under Monk - again with the caveat that the sample size is tiny - to 10.8, although before too much encouragement is drawn from that fact, it should be pointed out that shots on target conceded per game has gone up from 4.0 under Laudrup to 4.4.
It's obvious that the decision to replace Laudrup was at least in part taken for reasons that had little to do with what was happening on the pitch. The suggestion was that relations between Laudrup and the board had been strained since the summer when it was decided that Laudrup's agent had too great an influence over transfer activity, while questions were asked about just how focused the manager was. In terms of the statistics, though, the evidence suggests Laudrup had actually improved certain underlying key factors this season and that relegation was unlikely to be too much of a threat - particularly given the club had had the distraction of the Europa League and had lost Michu for long periods.
Appointing Monk is a gamble and, while the - limited - evidence so far suggests things are ticking along much as before, there is an element of the unknown that makes relegation a risk.
Are Swansea too good to go down? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
I personally think laudrup couldn't handle d pressure of such much a competition,with d little squad he had,had it been d europa league was not in d picture,maybe he would have done better,but as for monk,I pray he keeps d club up,cos if an ordinary west-brom can take cool advantage of u,den I see no reason y a fulham won't give a run,for your own show.
I think they're doing fine. They probably feel they've improved their squad significantly over the past 12 months. It's hard to be a mid-table club in the Premiership without some danger of relegation - it comes with the territory unfortunately.