Weakened Juve Defence Still Likely to be Too Strong for Milan

“Stats. Stats. Stats,” mumbled Zvonimir Boban. From the tone of his voice, the quiet under-the-breath interruption, it did not seem like approval. Instead it could be mistaken for the unbridled dissent for which the former Milan midfielder is now famous in his role as a pundit on Sky Italia. But this time Boban was actually nodding in agreement as Massimiliano Allegri explained the formula to ending the season as champions in Italy.

“If you score 75 goals or more and concede between 20 and 25 in this league you will win it,” Allegri said. “If you concede 30, you will finish second. If you concede 35 or more, you will finish third.”

The starting point of this debate was Allegri’s assessment of the competition this season. He had praise for the work Maurizio Sarri has done at Napoli, flipping the midfield diamond and restoring Marek Hamsik to his rightful position following a couple of awkward years as a No.10. No small pleasure was taken by presenter Fabio Caressa and another pundit Massimo Mauro in the news that Sarri’s predecessor Rafa Benitez had been relegated with Newcastle. Diplomatic and much more respectful, Allegri’s view of Benitez was that he “is a coach who does very well in the cup competitions but allowing as few goals as possible is what matters most in the league in Italy.”

And this is where Benitez fell short. Contrary to his reputation outside of Serie A for control and meticulous organisation, Napoli’s defending under his management was the principal reason why the Scudetto was beyond them. In two years, they shipped 93 league goals. Things markedly improved under Sarri. The return of Pepe Reina helped as did the change from a two-man tandem to a trio in midfield. However with the exception of right-back Elseid Hysaj, the back four remained the same and it came on leaps and bounds. Kalidou Koulibaly was in many people’s team of the season and even had Didier Deschamps dispatching his scouts to watch him only to find out, rather embarrassingly, that he has already been capped for Senegal and is no longer eligible for France.

The synchronicity of Napoli’s backline won praise in the loftiest circles, meeting with the approval of such luminaries as Billy Costacurta. In spite of letting in 22 goals fewer this season, it still wasn’t a match for Juventus’, however, whose goal difference was superior despite their attack trailing behind Napoli’s and their record-breaking striker Gonzalo Higuain and Roma’s, the league’s top scorers, who had their most prolific season since 1931.

The follow up question was an inevitable one. Is Juventus’ defence the best around? Atletico’s backline has won international acclaim this season and justifiably so. La Gazzetta even tried to claim it as one of their own on account of the decade Diego Simeone spent playing in Italy. But it’s not hard to imagine where Allegri’s loyalties lie.  “Juventus have the best defenders in the world,” he insisted.

Real Madrid’s BBC is Bale, Benzema and Cristiano. Juventus’ is Barzagli, Bonucci and Chiellini. They haven’t always been able to play together this season, principally because Chiellini has struggled to stay fit in 2016. 16 of Daniele Rugani’s 17 appearances for Juventus were made after January when Chiellini’s body began to break down and Martin Caceres, who Allegri rates as highly as each member of the BBC, snapped his Achilles tendon.

Even so the defence’s numbers this season are frankly astonishing and they are made all the more remarkable considering how wobbly Juventus were until November. Once again they matched the record set by Milan for clean sheets [22] in `93-94 just as they did two years ago. A lot of attention fell on Gigi Buffon breaking Sebastiano Rossi’s record for minutes without conceding [973]. What has gone relatively unnoticed, though, is how he hasn’t allowed a goal at the J Stadium for 987 minutes and counting. No one has been able to lay a glove on Juventus. Incredibly they didn’t concede once at home throughout the entire second half of the season. Only one team has managed to do that in Europe’s top five leagues and I was surprised to learn it was Saint-Etienne 11 years ago.

Even at 38, Buffon has had one of his best ever seasons. You can rattle off the big saves he has made from Bostjan Cesar, Kamil Glik, Raul Albiol and Mario Balotelli, all at delicate moments of the campaign. Paolo Maldini and Costacurta consider ‘the Rock’ to be the very best Italian centre-back of the last five years and yet he is the one who, outside of Italy, has the lowest profile. Juventus president Andrea Agnelli never tires of telling people how Barzagli is the signing he is most proud of even though he cost €300k, small change, but still more than Pirlo, Pogba, Evra, Llorente, Coman and Khedira, the free agents that this administration has picked up in the last five years. Bonucci is “one of” Pep Guardiola’s “favourite players” and you can understand why. “He’s a deep-lying playmaker, a midfielder, Juventus’ greatest fortune after Pirlo left is having a player like him,” Boban concluded. 

As a unit, the BBC are the foundation on which this cycle of success at Juventus has been built. They have played together 63 times in Serie A and have lost only on four occasions in the last five years, taking 153 of 189 points available. The clean sheets amount to 38 and Buffon has conceded more than once just five times.

It makes for daunting reading for Milan as they approach Saturday’s Coppa Italia final in Rome. Carlos Bacca’s 18-goal season covers the fact that their attack ranked eighth in Serie A this season. The last time Milan had as poor a record in front of goal was 14 years ago. Neto, the cup keeper, will play in goal for Juventus. Bonucci is suspended. Marchisio and Khedira are out and it’s worth remembering that Milan competed well when they last played Juventus, taking the lead and testing Buffon enough to make him Man of the Match. Oddly that was Sinisa Mihajlovic’s last game in charge and since then it has become brutally apparent just how decent a job he was doing. 

Even the NBC [Neto, Barzagli and Chiellini] should be able to hold out. Juventus’ defence is in the same conversation as Atletico’s as the best in football. But, in truth, it probably won’t need to be against this Milan.

Will Juventus have too much for Milan even without three key players? Let us know in the comments below